Methodology
What we compare
Upcoming NBA, NFL, UEFA Nations League, CS2 and League of Legends games listed on two or more of the venues we track. Matching starts from Outcome's sports listings and looks for the same game on Polymarket, Kalshi and predict.fun, so the board only has games Outcome lists. We match games on league, both teams and start time (within 30 hours). Football matches have three sides: home win, draw, away win.
Where the data comes from
| VENUE | SOURCE | PRICE WE USE |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Public Gamma API (global exchange) | Best ask |
| Kalshi | Public trade API | Best Yes ask |
| predict.fun | Public API, matched through the Polymarket market each one mirrors | Best ask |
| Outcome | Hyperliquid HIP-4 order books | Best ask |
Prices refresh every 2 minutes. Every venue is read the same way: the best ask, the lowest price someone is selling at right now. A thin book can mean the full $100 doesn't fill at that price, on any venue. The spread on each market page is a good tell.
How payout is worked out
Payout per $100 is what $100 all-in gets back if your side wins, after the venue's taker fee. Base rates, with no volume, staking or referral discounts. Fees page has each venue's fee document.
| VENUE | TAKER FEE |
|---|---|
| Kalshi | 7% × (1 − price) on top of the contracts, when you buy |
| Polymarket | rate × (1 − price) when you buy, rate read live per market (5% on sports) |
| predict.fun | rate × min(price, 1 − price) ÷ price when you buy, rate read live per market (2% today) |
| Outcome | Nothing to buy, 0.14% of the payout at settlement |
The gap next to each best payout is the best payout minus the lowest payout on that side, whichever venues those are. The venue it's measured against is always named.
Maker orders, rebates, gas and deposit or withdrawal costs aren't included. Neither are discounts: Hyperliquid volume tiers, HYPE staking and referral codes on Outcome, predict.fun's invite discount, Polymarket's taker rebates. The fees page shows how Hyperliquid's discounts stack.
The weekly payout report
Four times a day (00:00, 06:00, 12:00 and 18:00 UTC) we check every market on the board. One side of one game at one check is a reading.
Weeks run Monday to Monday, UTC. A game lands in the week it kicks off, with every reading up to kick-off.
Every venue gets scored the same way. How often it paid most. How many sides it led right before kick-off. And how far the top payout led, on average.
Every reading goes in the CSV. Check the maths yourself.
Limitless only lists crypto price markets right now. None match a game here, so it's left out for now.
Before you trade
None of this is advice or a forecast. Prices move. Check the venue before you trade, and only trade where it's legal for you.